Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks

Front Matter....Pages i-xiv
Introduction: The Challenges of Prevention....Pages 1-15
Front Matter....Pages 17-17
The Coastline of the Future: Some Limits on Forecasting and Prediction....Pages 19-32
Epistemology of Forecasting in International Relations: Knowing the Difference between ‘Intelligence Failure’ and ‘Warning Failure’....Pages 33-46
FORESEC: Lessons Learnt from a Pan-European Security Foresight Project....Pages 47-64
Modelling Transnational Environmental Risks: Scenarios for Decision Support....Pages 65-84
Risk, Uncertainty and the Assessment of Organised Crime....Pages 85-96
Front Matter....Pages 97-97
Mediatised Warnings: Late, Wrong, Yet Indispensable? Lessons from Climate Change and Civil War....Pages 99-116
Do They Listen? Communicating Warnings: An Intelligence Practitioner’s Perspective....Pages 117-126
Responding to Early Flood Warnings in the European Union....Pages 127-147
Dark Secrets: Face-Work, Organisational Culture and Disaster Prevention....Pages 148-165
Front Matter....Pages 167-167
Transnational Risk Management: A Business Perspective....Pages 169-186
From the ‘Neurotic’ to the ‘Rationalising’ State: Risk and the Limits of Governance....Pages 187-207
Silos and Silences: The Role of Fragmentation in the Recent Financial Crisis....Pages 208-216
Forecasting, Warning and Preventive Policy: The Case of Finance....Pages 217-226
Prospective Sense-Making: A Realistic Approach to ‘Foresight for Prevention’ in an Age of Complex Threats....Pages 227-240
Conclusion: New Perspectives for Theorising and Addressing Transnational Risks....Pages 241-257
Back Matter....Pages 258-285